Jacob Palmer runs his own electrical company at 23. He'll clear $150,000 this year. No college degree. No student debt. No fear of Claude writing him out of a job.
Meanwhile, his college-educated peers are discovering that their $500,000 investment in bachelor's degrees bought them entry-level positions now being automated by AI tools that cost $20 per month. The unemployment rate for recent college grads has jumped to 4.6%, up from 3.2% in 2019. Non-college-educated workers in the same age range? Their unemployment rose just 0.5% over the same period.
Maybe—just maybe—Gen Z figured something out that economists, parents, and career counselors missed: sometimes the smartest move is knowing what machines can't do.
Let's run the numbers that make higher education administrators uncomfortable. The average cost of college now tops $38,000 annually, approaching $60,000 for private institutions. Factor in four years of foregone income (median $46,748 annually), interest on student loans, and the total cost of a bachelor's degree exceeds $500,000 according to Education Data Initiative analysis.
Compare that to Morgan Bradbury's path: nine months at Universal Technical Institute for $21,000, then a $57,000 starting salary at BAE Systems before even finishing her welding certification. Or Chase Gallagher, who at 24 runs a business that generated $1,085,000 in sales last year, earning him just under $500,000 personally.
A 2025 survey by Zety found that 77% of Gen Z considers it important that their future job is hard to automate. They're not wrong to worry. The same survey shows they see professions like carpenter, plumber, and electrician as automation-resistant, while viewing software development, data analytics, and accounting as increasingly vulnerable.
The irony is delicious: the generation that grew up with smartphones and social media understands AI's limitations better than the professionals who've been predicting automation's impact for decades.
Vinnie Curcie, CEO of OC Solar, puts it bluntly: "AI can't go out in the field." His company offers solar panel sales, project management, and installation services. He expects AI will soon handle sales and project management. But installation? That requires human hands, human problem-solving, and human adaptation to physical environments.
Kayden Evans, an 18-year-old intern at Empire Cat, echoes this understanding: "AI can't go out in the field and take apart an engine." This isn't naive optimism—it's accurate assessment of current technological constraints.
Applications to plumbing and electrical programs have surged 30% according to industry experts, with Gen Z making up nearly 25% of all new hires in skilled trades in 2024, despite representing only 18% of the overall workforce. School districts report more students enrolling in welding, construction, and auto shop programs than there is available space.
This represents a fundamental market correction. For decades, society pushed the college-for-everyone narrative while simultaneously creating a massive shortage of skilled tradespeople. Gen Z is arbitraging that imbalance—and getting paid well for it.
David Asay, president of Advantage Reline, notes the cultural shift: "The perception among that younger group is no longer, 'Oh, you're working construction, you didn't go to school?' It's, 'What a cool skillset. You're making a good career path.'"
This matters more than it sounds. A 2024 Cengage Group survey found that 70% of recent graduates believe their college education didn't adequately prepare them for the current job market, with many citing AI's influence as a key factor. When college graduates are questioning the value of their degrees while trade workers are starting businesses and earning six figures, something fundamental has shifted.
The Wall Street Journal dubbed Gen Z "the toolbelt generation." Vocational training enrollment has jumped 16% as more young people realize that "following your passion" often means accumulating debt for jobs that don't exist anymore.
Here's the uncomfortable truth that makes this trend defensible rather than tragic: the trades offer something that most entry-level white-collar work never could—immediate value creation and tangible outcomes.
Palmer the electrician can see the results of his work daily. When he finishes a job, lights turn on. Systems function. People can use the space he wired. There's direct connection between effort and outcome, skill and reward. Compare that to the entry-level marketing coordinator spending their day generating social media content that AI could produce faster, or the junior analyst running reports that ChatGPT could compile in seconds.
The entrepreneurial opportunities also matter. As Asay points out, skilled tradespeople "can take their skills and create their own business." At 23, Palmer already did exactly that. How many 23-year-old college graduates are running profitable companies?
Median wages for electricians ($62,350) and plumbers ($62,970) compare favorably with many bachelor's degree holders—especially when you factor in that trade workers often start earning immediately while college students accumulate debt. Yes, the median wage for college graduates ($80,000) is higher, but that doesn't account for the years of foregone income, the debt burden, or the increasing risk of AI displacement.
We should be honest about what this trend reveals and what it doesn't solve. College graduates still tend to earn more over their lifetimes, and the median 12.5% return on investment in education remains positive according to Federal Reserve data. Certain careers—medicine, law, engineering, scientific research—still require traditional degrees and offer rewards that justify the investment.
The trade surge also doesn't solve the broader economic problem of AI displacement; it just routes people to currently automation-resistant work. Physical AI and robotics will eventually catch up. When that happens, today's "safe" trades might face their own disruption.
But here's why Gen Z's pivot still makes sense: they're making rational decisions based on current market conditions rather than outdated cultural assumptions about what success looks like. They're choosing paths with clear ROI, manageable costs, and immediate earning potential. They're betting on skills that machines haven't mastered yet rather than competing directly with algorithms in their area of strength.
That's not short-sighted—it's strategic.
The real story isn't that Gen Z is abandoning college en masse. It's that they're treating education as an investment rather than a ritual, and evaluating trades as viable careers rather than backup plans. When an electrician can out-earn a marketing graduate while carrying zero debt and facing less automation risk, dismissing that choice as somehow lesser reflects our cultural biases, not economic reality.
Maybe Palmer has it right: "I don't feel overly threatened by the growth of AI in my industry. That will be a pretty impressive robot that can do my job one day, if it ever happens."
Until someone builds that robot, he'll be clearing $150,000 annually. No loans. No algorithms. Just skills that humans still need other humans to perform.
Ready to position your business for Gen Z's shifting career priorities? Our growth experts at Winsome Marketing help companies understand and reach the toolbelt generation. Let's build your strategy for the new workforce reality.