Could AI Make Smartphones Obsolete?

Here we go again. Every September, like clockwork, some breathless pundit declares the smartphone "passé" while Apple quietly prepares to sell another 200 million iPhones. This year's version comes courtesy of industry veterans sharing their "predictions" about what's next in personal computing. Spoiler alert: it's the same sci-fi shopping list we've been hearing since Google Glass face-planted in 2013.

Let me paint you a picture of reality while Silicon Valley paints you a hologram.

The Numbers Don't Lie (Unlike the Hype Cycle)

Here's what's actually happening in the real world: IDC forecasts AI smartphone shipments will grow 364% year-over-year in 2024, reaching 234.2 million units, while Canalys estimates that by 2025, 58% of new smartphones will have GenAI capabilities.

Translation? The smartphone isn't dying—it's getting a PhD in artificial intelligence.

Meanwhile, Deloitte predicts only 30% of smartphones shipped in 2025 will have AI processing capabilities, suggesting we're still in the early innings of smartphone intelligence, not the bottom of the ninth.

The global smartphone market hit approximately $520 billion in 2024 compared to about $220 billion for PCs. That's not the profile of a dying category—that's the profile of a category that's about to get a lot smarter.

The AR Glasses Mirage: $2,000 Solutions to $0 Problems

Every tech prophet's favorite smartphone killer? AR glasses that will supposedly transform how we see the world. Meta sold over 1 million Ray-Ban smart glasses last year, which sounds impressive until you remember that's roughly what Apple sells in iPhones every three days.

The global smart glasses market hit 678,600 units in 2023, with projections of 13 million units by 2030. Even if those rosy predictions pan out, we're talking about a market that's smaller than what Samsung ships in Galaxy phones in a single quarter.

The current crop of "revolutionary" AR glasses costs upward of $2,000, requires constant charging, and offers the compelling user experience of having a computer screen floating awkwardly in your peripheral vision. Meanwhile, your smartphone does everything these glasses promise to do—navigation, translation, AI assistance—but better, faster, and without making you look like you're cosplaying a Google executive from 2013.

Mark Zuckerberg himself said 2025 would be a "defining year" for understanding whether AI glasses "explode in popularity or represent a longer grind." When even the guy betting the farm on AR glasses hedges his bets, maybe it's time to pump the brakes on the smartphone funeral plans.

The Humane Reality Check

Remember the Humane AI Pin? That $700 piece of wearable disappointment that was supposed to liberate us from our phones? As one industry analysis noted, "Humane learned the hard way last year that the world isn't ready to give up their phones."

The Pin's spectacular failure wasn't a bug—it was a feature. It demonstrated what happens when Silicon Valley's reality distortion field meets actual human behavior. People don't want to replace their smartphones; they want their smartphones to get better.

That's exactly what's happening. The next iPhone won't be "passé"—it'll be the most capable pocket computer ever created, powered by AI that makes today's Siri look like a speak-and-spell.

The Ecosystem Lock-In Nobody Talks About

Here's the dirty secret the "death of smartphones" crowd conveniently ignores: we've built our entire digital lives around these devices. Your photos, your payments, your two-factor authentication, your car keys, your boarding passes, your social connections—it's all there.

Any replacement device doesn't just need to match the smartphone's capabilities; it needs to seamlessly integrate with an ecosystem worth trillions of dollars. Good luck with that, smartwatch-and-AR-glasses combo.

As tech analyst Ben Thompson noted, alternatives like AR glasses often "feel smaller" in scope than the smartphone's impact, while ambient computing concepts might be larger but remain frustratingly theoretical.

What's Actually Next (Hint: It's Not What You Think)

The real future isn't about replacing smartphones—it's about making them so intelligent and integrated that everything else becomes an accessory. Your AR glasses will be connected to your phone. Your smartwatch will be dependent on your phone. Your car's AI will sync with your phone.

We're not witnessing the death of the smartphone; we're witnessing its coronation as the central nervous system of our digital existence.

The next big thing in personal computing isn't a new device category—it's the same device category, but with AI so powerful that it fundamentally changes how we interact with technology. When your phone can understand context, anticipate needs, and execute complex tasks with simple voice commands, who needs to strap a computer to their face?

So while the industry veterans make their predictions about what comes after the smartphone, the rest of us will be using smartphones that are smarter, more capable, and more essential than ever. The king is dead, long live the king—except the king isn't actually dead, and these aren't even pretenders to the throne.

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